The Probability Conflation: A Reply
On 2 May, 2023 By admin 0 Comments
January, 2023
Abstract
We respond to Tetlock et al. (2022) showing 1) how expert judgment fails to reflect tail risk, 2) the lack of compatibility between forecasting tournaments and tail risk assessment methods (such as extreme value theory).More importantly, we communicate a new result showing a greater gap between the properties of tail expectation and those of the corresponding probability.
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