External Course

The Sure Thing

DSA ADS Course - 2021

The Sure-Thing Principle, Causal Reasoning, Data-Driven Decision-Making, Algorithm Decision Making, Applied Probability, Nonlinear Utility Scale, Simpson’s Paradox, Blyth’s Game

Discuss applied probability, causal reasoning and types of decision making processes. Apply to both traditional algorithms and machine learning algorithms in decision making processes.

See also: The Sure-Thing Principle

The Sure Thing - 2021

Abstract

The Sure-Thing Principle

DSA ADS Course - 2021

The Sure-Thing Principle, Causal Reasoning, Data-Driven Decision-Making, Algorithm Decision Making, Applied Probability

Discuss applied probability, causal reasoning and types of decision making processes. Apply to both traditional algorithms and machine learning algorithms in decision making processes.

See also: The Sure Thing

The Sure-Thing Principle - 2016

Abstract

Artificial Intelligence and Democratic Norms

DSA ADS Course - 2021

Artificial Intelligence, Democratic Norms, Human Rights, Civil Liberties, Data Privacy

This initiative examines emerging issues in four crucial arenas relating to the integrity and vibrancy of democratic systems:

• Challenges to free expression and the integrity of the media and information space

• Threats to intellectual inquiry 

• Contestation over the principles that govern technology

• Leverage of state-driven capital for political and often corrosive purposes

Accuracy of Practitioner Estimates of Probability of Diagnosis Before and After Testing

DSA ADS Course - 2021

Applied Probability, Probability Theory, Medical Diagnosis, Medical Testing, Probability of Diagnosis 

Probability theory and accuracy in medical diagnosis. Estimating probability of diagnosis is critical job of front line physicians and many overestimate probabilities ordering unwarranted tests and overtreatment. 

Textbook example of failure of many physicians to accurately compute probability - JAMA study in 2021

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