We respond to Tetlock et al. (2022) showing 1) how expert judgment fails to reflect tail risk, 2) the lack of compatibility between forecasting tournaments and tail risk assessment methods (such as extreme value theory).More importantly, we communicate a new result showing a greater gap between the properties of tail expectation and those of the corresponding probability.
This DSA ADS course is part of a series of courses that demonstrate how to use applied data science with high performance compute and high quality data to optimize decision making in real world investing / trading scenarios.
This DSA ADS course is part of a series of courses that demonstrate how to use applied data science with high performance compute and high quality data to optimize decision making in real world investing / trading scenarios.
Discuss complex systems and how to use multiple conceptual frameworks in attempt to understand dynamics of different complex system types.
Discuss correlations in complex systems using financial systems and quantifying state-dependent correlations in stock markets as example.
This DSA ADS course is part of a series of courses that demonstrate how to use applied data science with high performance compute and high quality data to optimize decision making in real world investing / trading scenarios.
Discuss application of probability theory in real world investing / trading scenarios.
