Causal Reasoning

The Sure Thing

DSA ADS Course - 2021

The Sure-Thing Principle, Causal Reasoning, Data-Driven Decision-Making, Algorithm Decision Making, Applied Probability, Nonlinear Utility Scale, Simpson’s Paradox, Blyth’s Game

Discuss applied probability, causal reasoning and types of decision making processes. Apply to both traditional algorithms and machine learning algorithms in decision making processes.

See also: The Sure-Thing Principle

The Sure Thing - 2021

Abstract

The Sure-Thing Principle

DSA ADS Course - 2021

The Sure-Thing Principle, Causal Reasoning, Data-Driven Decision-Making, Algorithm Decision Making, Applied Probability

Discuss applied probability, causal reasoning and types of decision making processes. Apply to both traditional algorithms and machine learning algorithms in decision making processes.

See also: The Sure Thing

The Sure-Thing Principle - 2016

Abstract

Thinking About Causation: A Causal Language with Epistemic Operators

October, 2020

Abstract

This paper proposes a formal framework for modeling the interaction of causal and (qualitative) epistemic reasoning. To this purpose, we extend the notion of a causal model [16, 17, 26, 11] with a representation of the epistemic state of an agent. On the side of the object language, we add operators to express knowledge and the act of observing new information. We provide a sound and complete axiomatization of the logic, and discuss the relation of this framework to causal team semantics.

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