Epidemiology

How bad data quality can turn a simulation into a dissimulation that shapes the future

DSA ADS Course, 2022

Data Quality, Black Box Models, Bad Models, Origins of SARS-CoV-2, Epidemiology, Non-pharmaceutical Interventions, Mitigation Strategies, COVID19, Health Policy, Public Policy

Review data quality evaluations, bad model design, policy decision-making based on data science, black box models, unwarranted assumptions in models, and evidence based policy making with near real-time data.

Imagination and remembrance: what role should historical epidemiology play in a world bewitched by mathematical modelling of COVID‑19 and other epidemics?

April, 2021

Abstract

Although every emerging infectious disease occurs in a unique context, the behaviour of previous pandemics ofers an insight into the medium- and long-term outcomes of the current threat. Where an informative historical analogue exists, epidemiologists and policymakers should consider how the insights of the past can inform current forecasts and responses.

Low Aerobic Capacity in Middle-aged Men Associated with Increased Mortality Rates

Abstract:

Background: Low aerobic capacity has been associated with increased mortality in short-term studies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive power of aerobic capacity for mortality in middle-aged men during 45-years of follow-up.

Design: The study design was a population-based prospective cohort study.