OBJECTIVE: This paper provides a formal evaluation of the predictive performance of a model (and updates) developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) for predicting daily deaths attributed to COVID-19 for the United States.
STUDY DESIGN: To assess the accuracy of the IHME models, we examine both forecast accuracy, as well as the predictive performance of the 95% prediction intervals (PI).
This paper demonstrates that an operational forecast model can skillfully predict week 3-4 averages of temperature and precipitation over the contiguous U.S.
R. DAVID MCLEAN, JEFFREY PONTIFF
Campbell R. Harvey, Yan Liu, Heqing Zhu