Models

Avoiding Ambiguity

By: Sunetra Gupta

Limits of mathematical reasoning.

Danger of using models to make decisions.

Models may or may not help us understand complexity yet can create an illusion of reality.

Examination of Statistical Accuracy of COVID-19 Daily Death Count Predictions

May, 2020

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: This paper provides a formal evaluation of the predictive performance of a model (and updates) developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) for predicting daily deaths attributed to COVID-19 for the United States.

STUDY DESIGN: To assess the accuracy of the IHME models, we examine both forecast accuracy, as well as the predictive performance of the 95% prediction intervals (PI).