Non-pharmaceutical Interventions

Assessing Mandatory Stay‐at‐Home and Business Closure Effects on the Spread of COVID‐19

January, 2021


Background and Aims

The most restrictive non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for controlling the spread of COVID‐19 are mandatory stay‐at‐home and business closures. Given the consequences of these policies, it is important to assess their effects. We evaluate the effects on epidemic case growth of more restrictive NPIs (mrNPIs), above and beyond those of less restrictive NPIs (lrNPIs).


Illusory Effects of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID19 in Europe

June 8, 2020  -  Stefan Homburg, Christof Kuhbandner


Flaxman et al. (Nature, 8 June 2020,, 2020) infer that non-pharmaceutical interventions conducted by several European countries considerably reduced effective reproduction numbers and saved millions of lives. We show that their method is ill-conceived and that the alleged effects are artefacts. Moreover, we demonstrate that the United Kingdom?s lockdown was both superfluous and ineffective.