OBJECTIVE: This paper provides a formal evaluation of the predictive performance of a model (and updates) developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) for predicting daily deaths attributed to COVID-19 for the United States.
STUDY DESIGN: To assess the accuracy of the IHME models, we examine both forecast accuracy, as well as the predictive performance of the 95% prediction intervals (PI).
A country level exploratory analysis was conducted to assess the impact of timing and type of national health policy/actions undertaken towards COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes.
Slides of Xihong Lin ACEMS talk on "Learning from the COVID-19 Data in Wuhan, US and World." The talk discussed the Wuhan transmission rate estimates, intervention effects, Rt results, and HowWeFeel findings on the risk factors for positive tests.
In conclusion, closure or not of schools has had little if any impact on the number of laboratory confirmed cases in school aged children in Finland and Sweden. The negative effects of closing schools must be weighed against the positive effects, if any, it might have on the mitigation of the covid-19 pandemic.