Applied Probability

Evolutionary Game Theory: Game Theory, Applied Probability, Scenario Planning

DSA ADS Course - 2021

Game Theory, Applied Probability, Scenario Planning, Evolutionary Game Theory

Important to have basic knowledge of game theory. 

Game theory considers problems confronted by decision-makers with diverging interests like firms competing for a market. Players have to choose between strategies whose payoff depends on their rivals’ strategies. This interdependence leads to a mutual ‘outguessing’, as with chess (she thinks that I think that she thinks…).

The Sure Thing

DSA ADS Course - 2021

The Sure-Thing Principle, Causal Reasoning, Data-Driven Decision-Making, Algorithm Decision Making, Applied Probability, Nonlinear Utility Scale, Simpson’s Paradox, Blyth’s Game

Discuss applied probability, causal reasoning and types of decision making processes. Apply to both traditional algorithms and machine learning algorithms in decision making processes.

See also: The Sure-Thing Principle

The Sure Thing - 2021

Abstract

The Sure-Thing Principle

DSA ADS Course - 2021

The Sure-Thing Principle, Causal Reasoning, Data-Driven Decision-Making, Algorithm Decision Making, Applied Probability

Discuss applied probability, causal reasoning and types of decision making processes. Apply to both traditional algorithms and machine learning algorithms in decision making processes.

See also: The Sure Thing

The Sure-Thing Principle - 2016

Abstract

Accuracy of Practitioner Estimates of Probability of Diagnosis Before and After Testing

DSA ADS Course - 2021

Applied Probability, Probability Theory, Medical Diagnosis, Medical Testing, Probability of Diagnosis 

Probability theory and accuracy in medical diagnosis. Estimating probability of diagnosis is critical job of front line physicians and many overestimate probabilities ordering unwarranted tests and overtreatment. 

Textbook example of failure of many physicians to accurately compute probability - JAMA study in 2021

Probabilistic Causation

2013

External Course

The starting point of theories of probabilistic causation is that causes raise the probabilities of their effects; however the road to a satisfactory account of the relationship between causes and probabilisties has proven to be long and fraught with dificulties. This work offers a survey of the main problems and solutions emerged in about thirty years of research, and points to some metaphysical problems that are still object of philosophical debate.

 

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