The performance of the SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test as a tool for detecting SARS-CoV-2 infection in the population

May, 2021


In light of our findings that more than half of individuals with positive PCR test results are unlikely to have been infectious, RTPCR test positivity should not be taken as an accurate measure of infectious SARS-CoV-2 incidence. Our results confirm the findings of others that the routine use of “positive” RT-PCR test results as the gold standard for assessing and controlling infectiousness fails to reflect the fact “that 50-75% of the time an individual is PCR positive, they are likely to be post-infectious”.

Backward Art of Slowing the Spread? Congregation Efficiencies during COVID-19

April, 2021

DSA ADS Course - 2021

COVID19, Public Policy, Health Policy, Lockdowns

High causal density environments create difficult complexities for formulating appropriate goals and optimal policy. Experiment of lockdowns and other NPI's is textbook example. Discuss flawed lockdown and NPI theories, historical pandemic experiences and optimal strategy for future pandemics and other potential cataclysmic events.

Also discuss complexity in general and how to formulate appropriate goals, applied probability and flexible adaptation with near real-time data.

Circulating SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Antigen Detected in the Plasma of mRNA-1273 Vaccine Recipients

May 20, 2021

Potential problems with C19 mRNA Vaccine, SARS-CoV-2 Antigens, Immune Responses, Spike


SARS-CoV-2 proteins were measured in longitudinal plasma samples collected from 13 participants who received two doses of mRNA-1273 vaccine. 11 of 13 participants showed detectable levels of SARS-CoV-2 protein as early as day one after first vaccine injection. Clearance of detectable SARS-CoV-2 protein correlated with production of IgG and IgA.