Health Policy

Examination of Statistical Accuracy of COVID-19 Daily Death Count Predictions

May, 2020


OBJECTIVE: This paper provides a formal evaluation of the predictive performance of a model (and updates) developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) for predicting daily deaths attributed to COVID-19 for the United States.

STUDY DESIGN: To assess the accuracy of the IHME models, we examine both forecast accuracy, as well as the predictive performance of the 95% prediction intervals (PI).

A country level analysis measuring the impact of government actions, country preparedness and socioeconomic factors on COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes

July, 2020


A country level exploratory analysis was conducted to assess the impact of timing and type of national health policy/actions undertaken towards COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes.