OBJECTIVE: This paper provides a formal evaluation of the predictive performance of a model (and updates) developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) for predicting daily deaths attributed to COVID-19 for the United States.
STUDY DESIGN: To assess the accuracy of the IHME models, we examine both forecast accuracy, as well as the predictive performance of the 95% prediction intervals (PI).
A country level exploratory analysis was conducted to assess the impact of timing and type of national health policy/actions undertaken towards COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes.
Various observational and mechanistic evidence presented throughout this evidence brief, support the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 can infect and be shed from the human gastrointestinal tract.
Slides of Xihong Lin ACEMS talk on "Learning from the COVID-19 Data in Wuhan, US and World." The talk discussed the Wuhan transmission rate estimates, intervention effects, Rt results, and HowWeFeel findings on the risk factors for positive tests.