By: Sunetra Gupta
Limits of mathematical reasoning.
Danger of using models to make decisions.
Models may or may not help us understand complexity yet can create an illusion of reality.
OBJECTIVE: This paper provides a formal evaluation of the predictive performance of a model (and updates) developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) for predicting daily deaths attributed to COVID-19 for the United States.
STUDY DESIGN: To assess the accuracy of the IHME models, we examine both forecast accuracy, as well as the predictive performance of the 95% prediction intervals (PI).