Non-pharmaceutical Interventions

A TALE OF TWO SCIENTIFIC PARADIGMS: CONFLICTING SCIENTIFIC OPINIONS ON WHAT “FOLLOWING THE SCIENCE” MEANS FOR SARS-COV-2 AND THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

August, 2021

DSA ADS Course - 2021

COVID19, Public Policy, Health Policy, Modeling, Model-driven Science, Empirically-driven Science, Lockdowns, Non-pharmaceutical Interventions, NPIs

Discuss 2 paradigms: Model-driven Science vs. Empirically-driven Science

Assessing Mandatory Stay‐at‐Home and Business Closure Effects on the Spread of COVID‐19

January, 2021

Abstract

Background and Aims

The most restrictive non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for controlling the spread of COVID‐19 are mandatory stay‐at‐home and business closures. Given the consequences of these policies, it is important to assess their effects. We evaluate the effects on epidemic case growth of more restrictive NPIs (mrNPIs), above and beyond those of less restrictive NPIs (lrNPIs).

Methods

Illusory Effects of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID19 in Europe

June 8, 2020  -  Stefan Homburg, Christof Kuhbandner

Abstract

Flaxman et al. (Nature, 8 June 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7, 2020) infer that non-pharmaceutical interventions conducted by several European countries considerably reduced effective reproduction numbers and saved millions of lives. We show that their method is ill-conceived and that the alleged effects are artefacts. Moreover, we demonstrate that the United Kingdom?s lockdown was both superfluous and ineffective.