DSA ADS Course, 2022
Data Quality, Black Box Models, Bad Models, Origins of SARS-CoV-2, Epidemiology, Non-pharmaceutical Interventions, Mitigation Strategies, COVID19, Health Policy, Public Policy
Review data quality evaluations, bad model design, policy decision-making based on data science, black box models, unwarranted assumptions in models, and evidence based policy making with near real-time data.
DSA ADS Course - 2021
COVID19, Public Policy, Health Policy, Modeling, Model-driven Science, Empirically-driven Science, Lockdowns, Non-pharmaceutical Interventions, NPIs
Discuss 2 paradigms: Model-driven Science vs. Empirically-driven Science
Background and Aims
The most restrictive non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for controlling the spread of COVID‐19 are mandatory stay‐at‐home and business closures. Given the consequences of these policies, it is important to assess their effects. We evaluate the effects on epidemic case growth of more restrictive NPIs (mrNPIs), above and beyond those of less restrictive NPIs (lrNPIs).
Objective To compare the inference regarding the effectiveness of the various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for COVID-19 obtained from different SIR models.
June 8, 2020 - Stefan Homburg, Christof Kuhbandner
Flaxman et al. (Nature, 8 June 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7, 2020) infer that non-pharmaceutical interventions conducted by several European countries considerably reduced effective reproduction numbers and saved millions of lives. We show that their method is ill-conceived and that the alleged effects are artefacts. Moreover, we demonstrate that the United Kingdom?s lockdown was both superfluous and ineffective.